diff --git a/lib/ops-setup.sh b/lib/ops-setup.sh
index 8933343..db6e674 100644
--- a/lib/ops-setup.sh
+++ b/lib/ops-setup.sh
@@ -205,6 +205,16 @@ OPSEOF
     seeded=true
   fi
 
+  # Copy vault policy.toml template if not already present
+  if [ ! -f "${ops_root}/vault/policy.toml" ]; then
+    local policy_src="${FACTORY_ROOT:-$(cd "$(dirname "${BASH_SOURCE[0]}")/.." && pwd)}/vault/policy.toml"
+    if [ -f "$policy_src" ]; then
+      cp "$policy_src" "${ops_root}/vault/policy.toml"
+      echo "  + Copied vault/policy.toml template"
+      seeded=true
+    fi
+  fi
+
   # Create stub files if they don't exist
   [ -f "${ops_root}/portfolio.md" ] || { echo "# Portfolio" > "${ops_root}/portfolio.md"; seeded=true; }
   [ -f "${ops_root}/prerequisites.md" ] || { echo "# Prerequisite Tree" > "${ops_root}/prerequisites.md"; seeded=true; }
diff --git a/vault/classify.sh b/vault/classify.sh
new file mode 100755
index 0000000..f91ab25
--- /dev/null
+++ b/vault/classify.sh
@@ -0,0 +1,53 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env bash
+# classify.sh — Blast-radius classification engine
+#
+# Reads the ops-repo policy.toml and prints the tier for a given formula.
+# An optional blast_radius override (from the action TOML) takes precedence.
+#
+# Usage: classify.sh <formula-name> [blast_radius_override]
+# Output: prints "low", "medium", or "high" to stdout; exits 0
+#
+# Source lib/env.sh directly (not vault-env.sh) to avoid circular dependency:
+# vault-env.sh calls classify.sh, so classify.sh must not source vault-env.sh.
+# The only variable needed here is OPS_REPO_ROOT, which comes from lib/env.sh.
+# shellcheck source=../lib/env.sh
+set -euo pipefail
+
+source "$(cd "$(dirname "${BASH_SOURCE[0]}")/.." && pwd)/lib/env.sh"
+
+formula="${1:-}"
+override="${2:-}"
+
+if [ -z "$formula" ]; then
+  echo "Usage: classify.sh <formula-name> [blast_radius_override]" >&2
+  exit 1
+fi
+
+# If the action TOML provides a blast_radius override, use it directly
+if [[ "$override" =~ ^(low|medium|high)$ ]]; then
+  echo "$override"
+  exit 0
+fi
+
+# Read tier from ops-repo policy.toml
+policy_file="${OPS_REPO_ROOT}/vault/policy.toml"
+
+if [ -f "$policy_file" ]; then
+  # Parse: look for `formula_name = "tier"` under [tiers]
+  # Escape regex metacharacters in formula name for safe grep
+  escaped_formula=$(printf '%s' "$formula" | sed 's/[].[*^$\\]/\\&/g')
+  # grep may find no match (exit 1); guard with || true to avoid pipefail abort
+  tier=$(sed -n '/^\[tiers\]/,/^\[/{/^\[tiers\]/d;/^\[/d;p}' "$policy_file" \
+    | { grep -E "^${escaped_formula}[[:space:]]*=" || true; } \
+    | sed -E 's/^[^=]+=[[:space:]]*"([^"]+)".*/\1/' \
+    | head -n1)
+
+  if [[ "$tier" =~ ^(low|medium|high)$ ]]; then
+    echo "$tier"
+    exit 0
+  fi
+fi
+
+# Default-deny: unknown formulas are high
+echo "high"
+exit 0
diff --git a/vault/policy.toml b/vault/policy.toml
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..5ba2667
--- /dev/null
+++ b/vault/policy.toml
@@ -0,0 +1,30 @@
+# vault/policy.toml — Blast-radius tier classification for formulas
+#
+# Each formula maps to a tier: "low", "medium", or "high".
+# Unknown formulas default to "high" (default-deny).
+#
+# This file is a template. `disinto init` copies it to
+# $OPS_REPO_ROOT/vault/policy.toml where operators can override tiers
+# per-deployment without a disinto PR.
+
+[tiers]
+# Read-only / internal bookkeeping — no external side-effects
+groom-backlog       = "low"
+triage              = "low"
+reproduce           = "low"
+review-pr           = "low"
+
+# Create issues, PRs, or internal plans — visible but reversible
+dev                 = "medium"
+run-planner         = "medium"
+run-gardener        = "medium"
+run-predictor       = "medium"
+run-supervisor      = "medium"
+run-architect       = "medium"
+upgrade-dependency  = "medium"
+
+# External-facing or irreversible operations
+run-publish-site    = "high"
+run-rent-a-human    = "high"
+add-rpc-method      = "high"
+release             = "high"
diff --git a/vault/vault-env.sh b/vault/vault-env.sh
index 8e7f7c6..8ceddc3 100644
--- a/vault/vault-env.sh
+++ b/vault/vault-env.sh
@@ -11,6 +11,14 @@ FORGE_TOKEN="${FORGE_VAULT_TOKEN:-${FORGE_TOKEN}}"
 # Vault redesign in progress (PR-based approval workflow)
 # This file is kept for shared env setup; scripts being replaced by #73
 
+# Blast-radius classification — set VAULT_TIER if a formula is known
+# Callers may set VAULT_ACTION_FORMULA before sourcing, or pass it later.
+if [ -n "${VAULT_ACTION_FORMULA:-}" ]; then
+  VAULT_TIER=$("$(cd "$(dirname "${BASH_SOURCE[0]}")" && pwd)/classify.sh" \
+    "$VAULT_ACTION_FORMULA" "${VAULT_BLAST_RADIUS_OVERRIDE:-}")
+  export VAULT_TIER
+fi
+
 # =============================================================================
 # VAULT ACTION VALIDATION
 # =============================================================================