# Planner run — 2026-03-25 07:15 UTC

## Predictions triaged
- #656: DISMISS — planning deadlock is resolved by this run; tree staleness corrected
- #655: PROMOTE_BACKLOG → #663 — check_active guard should log when skipping
- #644: WATCH — disk P1 reactive cleanup works; not urgent enough for backlog slot
- #643: PROMOTE_BACKLOG → #664 — supervisor should clean stale phase files for closed issues
- #642: DISMISS — HTTP 401 likely caused by #653 (wrong remote), now fixed
- #640: DISMISS — all 5 bootstrap failures (#634-638) closed; remaining fixes in pipeline

## Prerequisite tree updates
- Resolved: #568 (merge guard) moved from BLOCKED to DONE — was closed but tree was stale
- Resolved: bootstrap hardening issues #634-638, #652, #653, #658 all closed
- Discovered: #660 (Forgejo reachability) and #661 (Woodpecker CI wiring) as remaining init prerequisites
- Added: new objective "Factory operational reliability" with #663 and #664
- Added: #668 (end-to-end init smoke test) as init prerequisite
- Status change: #466 marked ESCALATED (bounced + gardener escalation, awaiting human decision)

## Top 5 constraints
1. #466 — example project — blocks Adoption completion — ESCALATED, awaiting human decision
2. #661 — Woodpecker CI wiring — blocks init completeness — in backlog with priority
3. #668 — init smoke test — blocks init quality assurance — filed this run
4. #663 — guard logging — prevents invisible agent dropouts — filed this run (from #655)
5. #664 — stale phase cleanup — reduces supervisor signal noise — filed this run (from #643)

## Stuck issues detected
- #466: BOUNCED (1x, "too large for single session") + ESCALATED (gardener: "needs human decision on approach") — added comment noting escalation seen, suggested option (b) local demo may be viable

## Issues created
- #663: fix: check_active guard should log to stderr when skipping (from prediction #655)
- #664: fix: supervisor should clean up stale PHASE:escalate files (from prediction #643)
- #668: feat: end-to-end disinto init smoke test in CI (new constraint — init quality)

## Priority label changes
- Added priority: #661, #663, #664, #668 (top constraints)
- Kept priority: #466 (still #1 constraint, though escalated)
- No priority removed (only #466 had it previously)

## Observations
- Massive progress since last run (2026-03-23): ~30 issues closed in 48h. Bootstrap hardening wave (#634-638, #652, #653, #658) completed. Full stack containerized (#618, #619).
- Planner missed 2026-03-24 run due to active-state guard deploy gap (#655). State files created 21h after guard merged. No visible signal of the missed run.
- Factory nearly idle: 1 in-progress (#660), 1 backlog (#661), plus 3 newly filed. After current pipeline clears, #466 is the only Adoption item left.
- Adoption milestone 4/5 complete. #466 is stuck on human decision (external vs local demo). The containerized stack work makes option (b) viable — suggested in comment.
- #568 (merge guard) was marked BLOCKED in tree but actually closed — 2-day stale tree from missed planner run.
- Predictor signal quality: 6 predictions, all substantive. 2 promoted, 1 watched, 3 dismissed. Better signal-to-noise than earlier runs.
- RESOURCES.md unchanged. Vault empty (no procurement requests).

## Deferred (in tree, not filed)
- Scale: plugin system, community formulas, hosted option — premature without users
- Vision items: #1 (halt/resume), #2 (self-tuning), #4 (multi-VPS) — far future
- Prediction #644 (disk P1): watching, reactive cleanup works
- Prediction #580 (Caddy CVEs): still in prediction/backlog, static site mitigates
- Prediction #529 (swap 57%): stable, not trending worse
