fix: Remove legacy predictor (prediction-poll.sh + prediction-agent.sh + cron entry) (#419)

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>

.woodpecker/agent-smoke.sh

@@ -196,8 +196,6 @@ check_script gardener/gardener-run.sh
 check_script review/review-pr.sh
 check_script review/review-poll.sh
 check_script planner/planner-run.sh
-check_script planner/prediction-agent.sh
-check_script planner/prediction-poll.sh
 check_script supervisor/supervisor-poll.sh
 check_script supervisor/update-prompt.sh
 check_script vault/vault-agent.sh

AGENTS.md

@@ -20,7 +20,6 @@ disinto/
 ├── predictor/     predictor-run.sh — daily cron executor for run-predictor formula
 ├── planner/       planner-run.sh — direct cron executor for run-planner formula
 │                  planner/journal/ — daily raw logs from each planner run
-│                  prediction-poll.sh, prediction-agent.sh — legacy predictor (superseded by predictor/)
 ├── supervisor/    supervisor-run.sh — formula-driven health monitoring (cron wrapper)
 │                  preflight.sh — pre-flight data collection for supervisor formula
 │                  supervisor/journal/ — daily health logs from each run

planner/prediction-agent.sh

@@ -1,277 +0,0 @@
-#!/usr/bin/env bash
-# =============================================================================
-# prediction-agent.sh — Per-project LLM prediction agent
-#
-# Reads structured evidence from the project's evidence/ directory plus
-# secondary Codeberg signals, then asks Claude to identify patterns and
-# file up to 5 prediction/unreviewed issues for the planner to triage.
-#
-# The predictor is the goblin — it sees patterns and shouts about them.
-# The planner is the adult — it triages every prediction before acting.
-# The predictor MUST NOT emit feature work directly.
-#
-# Signal sources:
-#   evidence/red-team/    — attack results, floor status, vulnerability trends
-#   evidence/evolution/   — fitness scores, champion improvements
-#   evidence/user-test/   — persona journey completion, friction points
-#   evidence/holdout/     — scenario pass rates, quality gate history
-#   evidence/resources/   — CPU, RAM, disk, container utilization
-#   evidence/protocol/    — on-chain metrics from Ponder
-#
-# Secondary:
-#   Codeberg activity (new issues, merged PRs), system resource snapshot
-#
-# Usage: prediction-agent.sh [project-toml]
-# Called by: prediction-poll.sh
-# =============================================================================
-set -euo pipefail
-
-SCRIPT_DIR="$(cd "$(dirname "$0")" && pwd)"
-FACTORY_ROOT="$(dirname "$SCRIPT_DIR")"
-
-export PROJECT_TOML="${1:-}"
-# shellcheck source=../lib/env.sh
-source "$FACTORY_ROOT/lib/env.sh"
-
-LOG_FILE="$SCRIPT_DIR/prediction.log"
-# env.sh already exports CLAUDE_TIMEOUT="${CLAUDE_TIMEOUT:-7200}"; inherit that default
-EVIDENCE_DIR="${PROJECT_REPO_ROOT}/evidence"
-
-log() { echo "[$(date -u +%Y-%m-%dT%H:%M:%S)Z] $*" >> "$LOG_FILE"; }
-
-log "--- prediction-agent start (project: ${PROJECT_NAME}) ---"
-
-# ── Helpers ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
-
-# Find the most recent JSON file in a directory (files named YYYY-MM-DD.json
-# sort correctly in alphabetical order).
-latest_json() { find "$1" -maxdepth 1 -name '*.json' 2>/dev/null | sort | tail -1; }
-prev_json()   { find "$1" -maxdepth 1 -name '*.json' 2>/dev/null | sort | tail -2 | head -1; }
-
-# ── Scan evidence/ directory ──────────────────────────────────────────────
-EVIDENCE_SUMMARY=""
-for subdir in red-team evolution user-test holdout resources protocol; do
-  subdir_path="${EVIDENCE_DIR}/${subdir}"
-
-  if [ ! -d "$subdir_path" ]; then
-    EVIDENCE_SUMMARY="${EVIDENCE_SUMMARY}
-=== evidence/${subdir} ===
-(no data — directory not yet created)"
-    continue
-  fi
-
-  latest=$(latest_json "$subdir_path")
-  if [ -z "$latest" ]; then
-    EVIDENCE_SUMMARY="${EVIDENCE_SUMMARY}
-=== evidence/${subdir} ===
-(no data — no JSON files found)"
-    continue
-  fi
-
-  latest_name=$(basename "$latest")
-  # Derive age from the date in the filename (YYYY-MM-DD.json) — more reliable
-  # than mtime, which changes when files are copied or synced.
-  file_date=$(basename "$latest" .json)
-  file_ts=$(date -d "$file_date" +%s 2>/dev/null || date -r "$latest" +%s)
-  now_ts=$(date +%s)
-  age_hours=$(( (now_ts - file_ts) / 3600 ))
-  content=$(head -c 3000 "$latest" 2>/dev/null || echo "{}")
-
-  prev=$(prev_json "$subdir_path")
-  prev_section=""
-  if [ -n "$prev" ] && [ "$prev" != "$latest" ]; then
-    prev_name=$(basename "$prev")
-    prev_content=$(head -c 2000 "$prev" 2>/dev/null || echo "{}")
-    prev_section="
-  previous: ${prev_name}
-  previous_content: ${prev_content}"
-  fi
-
-  EVIDENCE_SUMMARY="${EVIDENCE_SUMMARY}
-=== evidence/${subdir} ===
-  latest: ${latest_name} (age: ${age_hours}h, path: ${latest})
-  content: ${content}${prev_section}"
-done
-
-# ── Secondary signals — Codeberg activity (last 24h) ─────────────────────
-SINCE_ISO=$(date -u -d '24 hours ago' +%Y-%m-%dT%H:%M:%SZ 2>/dev/null || true)
-if [ -z "$SINCE_ISO" ]; then
-  log "WARN: date -d '24 hours ago' failed (non-GNU date?) — skipping Codeberg activity"
-fi
-RECENT_ISSUES=""
-RECENT_PRS=""
-if [ -n "$SINCE_ISO" ]; then
-  RECENT_ISSUES=$(codeberg_api GET "/issues?state=open&type=issues&limit=20&sort=newest" 2>/dev/null | \
-    jq -r --arg since "$SINCE_ISO" \
-    '.[] | select(.created_at >= $since) | "  #\(.number) [\(.labels | map(.name) | join(","))] \(.title)"' \
-    2>/dev/null || true)
-  # Use state=closed to capture recently-merged PRs — merged activity is the
-  # key signal (e.g. new red-team PR merged since last evolution run).
-  RECENT_PRS=$(codeberg_api GET "/pulls?state=closed&limit=20&sort=newest" 2>/dev/null | \
-    jq -r --arg since "$SINCE_ISO" \
-    '.[] | select(.merged_at != null and .merged_at >= $since) | "  #\(.number) \(.title) (merged \(.merged_at[:10]))"' \
-    2>/dev/null || true)
-fi
-
-# ── Already-open predictions (avoid duplicates) ───────────────────────────
-OPEN_PREDICTIONS=$(codeberg_api GET "/issues?state=open&type=issues&labels=prediction%2Funreviewed&limit=50" 2>/dev/null | \
-  jq -r '.[] | "  #\(.number) \(.title)"' 2>/dev/null || true)
-
-# ── System resource snapshot ──────────────────────────────────────────────
-AVAIL_MB=$(free -m | awk '/Mem:/{print $7}' 2>/dev/null || echo "unknown")
-DISK_PCT=$(df -h / | awk 'NR==2{print $5}' | tr -d '%' 2>/dev/null || echo "unknown")
-LOAD_AVG=$(cut -d' ' -f1-3 /proc/loadavg 2>/dev/null || echo "unknown")
-ACTIVE_SESSIONS=$(tmux list-sessions 2>/dev/null | \
-  grep -cE "^(dev|action|gardener|review)-" || echo "0")
-
-# ── Build prompt ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
-PROMPT="You are the prediction agent (goblin) for ${CODEBERG_REPO}.
-
-Your role: spot patterns in evidence and signal them as prediction issues.
-The planner (adult) will triage every prediction before acting.
-You MUST NOT emit feature work or implementation issues — only predictions
-about evidence state, metric trends, and system conditions.
-
-## Evidence from evidence/ directory
-${EVIDENCE_SUMMARY}
-
-## System resource snapshot (right now)
-Available RAM: ${AVAIL_MB}MB
-Disk used: ${DISK_PCT}%
-Load avg (1/5/15 min): ${LOAD_AVG}
-Active agent sessions (tmux): ${ACTIVE_SESSIONS}
-
-## Recent Codeberg activity (last 24h)
-New issues:
-${RECENT_ISSUES:-  (none)}
-
-Recently merged PRs (last 24h):
-${RECENT_PRS:-  (none)}
-
-## Already-open predictions (do NOT duplicate these)
-${OPEN_PREDICTIONS:-  (none)}
-
-## What to look for
-
-**Staleness** — Evidence older than its expected refresh interval:
-- red-team: stale after 7 days
-- evolution: stale after 7 days
-- user-test: stale after 14 days
-- holdout: stale after 7 days
-- resources: stale after 1 day
-- protocol: stale after 1 day
-- any directory missing entirely: flag as critical gap
-
-**Regression** — Metrics worse in latest vs previous run:
-- Decreased: fitness score, pass rate, conversion, floor price
-- Increased: error count, risk score, ETH extracted by attacker
-- Only flag if change is meaningful (>5% relative, or clearly significant)
-
-**Opportunity** — Conditions that make a process worth running now:
-- Box is relatively idle (RAM>2000MB, load<2.0, no active agent sessions)
-  AND evidence is stale — good time to run evolution or red-team
-- New attack vectors in red-team since last evolution run → evolution scores stale
-
-**Risk** — Conditions that suggest deferring expensive work:
-- RAM<1500MB or disk>85% or load>3.0 → defer evolution/red-team
-- Active dev session in progress on related work
-
-## Output format
-
-For each prediction, output a JSON object on its own line (no array wrapper,
-no markdown fences):
-
-{\"title\": \"...\", \"signal_source\": \"...\", \"confidence\": \"high|medium|low\", \"suggested_action\": \"...\", \"body\": \"...\"}
-
-Fields:
-- title: Short declarative statement of what you observed. Not an action.
-- signal_source: Which evidence file or signal triggered this
-  (e.g. \"evidence/evolution/2024-01-15.json\", \"system resources\",
-  \"evidence/red-team/ missing\")
-- confidence: high (clear numerical evidence), medium (trend/pattern),
-  low (inferred or absent data but important to flag)
-- suggested_action: Concrete next step for the planner —
-  \"run formula X\", \"file issue for Y\", \"escalate to human\",
-  \"monitor for N days\", \"run process X\"
-- body: 2-4 sentences. What changed or is missing, why it matters,
-  what the planner should consider doing. Be specific: name the file,
-  metric, and value.
-
-## Rules
-- Max 5 predictions total
-- Do NOT predict feature work — only evidence/metric/system observations
-- Do NOT duplicate existing open predictions (listed above)
-- Do NOT predict things you cannot support with the evidence provided
-- Prefer high-confidence predictions; emit low-confidence only when the
-  signal is important (e.g. missing critical evidence)
-- Be specific: name the file, the metric, the value
-
-If you see no meaningful patterns, output exactly: NO_PREDICTIONS
-
-Output ONLY the JSON lines (or NO_PREDICTIONS) — no preamble, no markdown."
-
-# ── Invoke Claude (one-shot) ──────────────────────────────────────────────
-log "invoking claude -p for ${PROJECT_NAME} predictions"
-CLAUDE_OUTPUT=$(timeout "$CLAUDE_TIMEOUT" claude -p "$PROMPT" \
-  --model sonnet \
-  2>/dev/null) || {
-  EXIT_CODE=$?
-  log "ERROR: claude exited with code $EXIT_CODE"
-  exit 1
-}
-
-log "claude finished ($(printf '%s' "$CLAUDE_OUTPUT" | wc -c) bytes)"
-
-if printf '%s' "$CLAUDE_OUTPUT" | grep -qxF "NO_PREDICTIONS"; then
-  log "no predictions — evidence looks healthy for ${PROJECT_NAME}"
-  log "--- prediction-agent done ---"
-  exit 0
-fi
-
-# ── Look up prediction/unreviewed label ───────────────────────────────────
-PREDICTION_LABEL_ID=$(codeberg_api GET "/labels" 2>/dev/null | \
-  jq -r '.[] | select(.name == "prediction/unreviewed") | .id' 2>/dev/null || true)
-if [ -z "$PREDICTION_LABEL_ID" ]; then
-  log "WARN: 'prediction/unreviewed' label not found — issues created without label (see #141)"
-fi
-
-# ── Create prediction issues ──────────────────────────────────────────────
-CREATED=0
-while IFS= read -r line; do
-  [ -z "$line" ] && continue
-  # Skip non-JSON lines
-  printf '%s' "$line" | jq -e . >/dev/null 2>&1 || continue
-
-  TITLE=$(printf '%s' "$line"  | jq -r '.title')
-  SIGNAL=$(printf '%s' "$line" | jq -r '.signal_source // "unknown"')
-  CONFIDENCE=$(printf '%s' "$line" | jq -r '.confidence // "medium"')
-  ACTION=$(printf '%s' "$line" | jq -r '.suggested_action // ""')
-  BODY_TEXT=$(printf '%s' "$line" | jq -r '.body')
-
-  FULL_BODY="${BODY_TEXT}
-
----
-**Signal source:** ${SIGNAL}
-**Confidence:** ${CONFIDENCE}
-**Suggested action:** ${ACTION}"
-
-  CREATE_PAYLOAD=$(jq -nc --arg t "$TITLE" --arg b "$FULL_BODY" \
-    '{title: $t, body: $b}')
-
-  if [ -n "$PREDICTION_LABEL_ID" ]; then
-    CREATE_PAYLOAD=$(printf '%s' "$CREATE_PAYLOAD" | \
-      jq --argjson lid "$PREDICTION_LABEL_ID" '.labels = [$lid]')
-  fi
-
-  RESULT=$(codeberg_api POST "/issues" -d "$CREATE_PAYLOAD" 2>/dev/null || true)
-  ISSUE_NUM=$(printf '%s' "$RESULT" | jq -r '.number // "?"' 2>/dev/null || echo "?")
-
-  log "Created prediction #${ISSUE_NUM} [${CONFIDENCE}]: ${TITLE}"
-  matrix_send "predictor" "🔮 Prediction #${ISSUE_NUM} [${CONFIDENCE}]: ${TITLE} — ${ACTION}" \
-    2>/dev/null || true
-
-  CREATED=$((CREATED + 1))
-  [ "$CREATED" -ge 5 ] && break
-done <<< "$CLAUDE_OUTPUT"
-
-log "--- prediction-agent done (created ${CREATED} predictions for ${PROJECT_NAME}) ---"

planner/prediction-poll.sh

@@ -1,69 +0,0 @@
-#!/usr/bin/env bash
-# =============================================================================
-# prediction-poll.sh — Cron wrapper for prediction-agent (per-project)
-#
-# Runs hourly. Guards against concurrent runs and low memory.
-# Iterates over all registered projects and runs prediction-agent.sh for each.
-#
-# Cron: 0 * * * * /path/to/disinto/planner/prediction-poll.sh
-# Log:  tail -f /path/to/disinto/planner/prediction.log
-# =============================================================================
-set -euo pipefail
-
-SCRIPT_DIR="$(cd "$(dirname "$0")" && pwd)"
-FACTORY_ROOT="$(dirname "$SCRIPT_DIR")"
-
-# shellcheck source=../lib/env.sh
-source "$FACTORY_ROOT/lib/env.sh"
-
-LOG_FILE="$SCRIPT_DIR/prediction.log"
-# Global lock — projects are processed serially. If a single run takes longer
-# than the cron interval (1h), the next cron invocation will find the lock held
-# and exit silently. That is acceptable: LLM calls are cheap to skip.
-LOCK_FILE="/tmp/prediction-poll.lock"
-PROJECTS_DIR="$FACTORY_ROOT/projects"
-
-log() { echo "[$(date -u +%Y-%m-%dT%H:%M:%S)Z] $*" >> "$LOG_FILE"; }
-
-# ── Lock ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
-if [ -f "$LOCK_FILE" ]; then
-  LOCK_PID=$(cat "$LOCK_FILE" 2>/dev/null || true)
-  if [ -n "$LOCK_PID" ] && kill -0 "$LOCK_PID" 2>/dev/null; then
-    log "poll: prediction running (PID $LOCK_PID)"
-    exit 0
-  fi
-  rm -f "$LOCK_FILE"
-fi
-echo $$ > "$LOCK_FILE"
-trap 'rm -f "$LOCK_FILE"' EXIT
-
-# ── Memory guard ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
-AVAIL_MB=$(free -m | awk '/Mem:/{print $7}')
-if [ "${AVAIL_MB:-0}" -lt 2000 ]; then
-  log "poll: skipping — only ${AVAIL_MB}MB available (need 2000)"
-  exit 0
-fi
-
-log "--- Prediction poll start ---"
-
-# ── Iterate over projects ─────────────────────────────────────────────────
-PROJECT_COUNT=0
-if [ -d "$PROJECTS_DIR" ]; then
-  for project_toml in "$PROJECTS_DIR"/*.toml; do
-    [ -f "$project_toml" ] || continue
-    PROJECT_COUNT=$((PROJECT_COUNT + 1))
-    log "starting prediction-agent for $(basename "$project_toml")"
-    if ! "$SCRIPT_DIR/prediction-agent.sh" "$project_toml"; then
-      log "prediction-agent exited non-zero for $(basename "$project_toml")"
-    fi
-  done
-fi
-
-if [ "$PROJECT_COUNT" -eq 0 ]; then
-  log "No projects/*.toml found — running prediction-agent with .env defaults"
-  if ! "$SCRIPT_DIR/prediction-agent.sh"; then
-    log "prediction-agent exited non-zero"
-  fi
-fi
-
-log "--- Prediction poll done ---"

predictor/AGENTS.md

@@ -23,12 +23,6 @@ memory check (skips if available RAM < 2000 MB).
   collect-signals, analyze-and-predict) with `needs` dependencies. Claude
   collects signals and files prediction issues in a single interactive session
 
-**Supersedes**: The legacy predictor (`planner/prediction-poll.sh` +
-`planner/prediction-agent.sh`) used `claude -p` one-shot, read `evidence/`
-JSON, and ran hourly. This formula-based predictor replaces it with direct
-CI/issues/logs signal collection and interactive Claude sessions, matching the
-planner's tmux+formula pattern.
-
 **Environment variables consumed**:
 - `CODEBERG_TOKEN`, `CODEBERG_REPO`, `CODEBERG_API`, `PROJECT_NAME`, `PROJECT_REPO_ROOT`
 - `PRIMARY_BRANCH`, `CLAUDE_MODEL` (set to sonnet by predictor-run.sh)