chore: gardener housekeeping 2026-03-21

Progressive disclosure split of AGENTS.md (487→152 lines):
- Extracted per-directory AGENTS.md files for all 8 agents + lib/
- Root AGENTS.md now serves as a table of contents with summary table
- All watermarks updated to 16e430e

Grooming results:
- Promoted #469 (WATCH flow missing curl) and #436 (idle_pane_count bug) to backlog
- 12 dust items classified, no groups ripe for bundling yet
- No blocked issues, no AD violations

predictor/AGENTS.md

@@ -0,0 +1,42 @@
+<!-- last-reviewed: 16e430ebce905cf722f91ae1f873faea1c64d890 -->
+# Predictor Agent
+
+**Role**: Infrastructure pattern detection (the "goblin"). Runs a 3-step
+formula (preflight → collect-signals → analyze-and-predict) via interactive
+tmux Claude session (sonnet). Collects disinto-specific signals: CI pipeline
+trends (Woodpecker), stale issues, agent health (tmux sessions + logs), and
+resource patterns (RAM, disk, load, containers). Files up to 5
+`prediction/unreviewed` issues for the Planner to triage. The predictor MUST
+NOT emit feature work — only observations about CI health, issue staleness,
+agent status, and system conditions.
+
+**Trigger**: `predictor-run.sh` runs daily at 06:00 UTC via cron (1h before
+the planner at 07:00). Guarded by PID lock (`/tmp/predictor-run.lock`) and
+memory check (skips if available RAM < 2000 MB).
+
+**Key files**:
+- `predictor/predictor-run.sh` — Cron wrapper + orchestrator: lock, memory guard,
+  sources disinto project config, builds prompt with formula + Codeberg API
+  reference, creates tmux session (sonnet), monitors phase file, handles crash
+  recovery via `run_formula_and_monitor`
+- `formulas/run-predictor.toml` — Execution spec: three steps (preflight,
+  collect-signals, analyze-and-predict) with `needs` dependencies. Claude
+  collects signals and files prediction issues in a single interactive session
+
+**Supersedes**: The legacy predictor (`planner/prediction-poll.sh` +
+`planner/prediction-agent.sh`) used `claude -p` one-shot, read `evidence/`
+JSON, and ran hourly. This formula-based predictor replaces it with direct
+CI/issues/logs signal collection and interactive Claude sessions, matching the
+planner's tmux+formula pattern.
+
+**Environment variables consumed**:
+- `CODEBERG_TOKEN`, `CODEBERG_REPO`, `CODEBERG_API`, `PROJECT_NAME`, `PROJECT_REPO_ROOT`
+- `PRIMARY_BRANCH`, `CLAUDE_MODEL` (set to sonnet by predictor-run.sh)
+- `WOODPECKER_TOKEN`, `WOODPECKER_SERVER` — CI pipeline trend queries (optional; skipped if unset)
+- `MATRIX_TOKEN`, `MATRIX_ROOM_ID`, `MATRIX_HOMESERVER` — Notifications (optional)
+
+**Lifecycle**: predictor-run.sh (daily 06:00 cron) → lock + memory guard →
+load formula + context → create tmux session → Claude collects signals
+(CI trends, stale issues, agent health, resources) → dedup against existing
+open predictions → file `prediction/unreviewed` issues → `PHASE:done`.
+The planner's Phase 1 later triages these predictions.