disinto/predictor/AGENTS.md

Predictor Agent

Role: Abstract adversary (the "goblin"). Runs a 2-step formula (preflight → find-weakness-and-act) via interactive tmux Claude session (sonnet). Finds the project's biggest weakness, challenges planner claims, and generates evidence through explore/exploit decisions:

• Explore (low confidence) — file a prediction/unreviewed issue for the planner to triage
• Exploit (high confidence) — file a prediction AND dispatch a formula via an action issue to generate evidence before the planner even runs

The predictor's own prediction history (open + closed issues) serves as its memory — it reviews what was actioned, dismissed, or deferred to decide where to focus next. No hardcoded signal categories; Claude decides where to look based on available data: prerequisite tree, evidence directories, VISION.md, RESOURCES.md, open issues, agent logs, and external signals (via web search).

Files up to 5 actions per run (predictions + dispatches combined). Each exploit counts as 2 (prediction + action dispatch). The predictor MUST NOT emit feature work — only observations challenging claims, exposing gaps, and surfacing risks.

Trigger: predictor-run.sh runs daily at 06:00 UTC via cron (1h before the planner at 07:00). Guarded by PID lock (/tmp/predictor-run.lock) and memory check (skips if available RAM < 2000 MB).

Key files:

• predictor/predictor-run.sh — Cron wrapper + orchestrator: lock, memory guard, sources disinto project config, builds prompt with formula + Codeberg API reference, creates tmux session (sonnet), monitors phase file, handles crash recovery via run_formula_and_monitor
• formulas/run-predictor.toml — Execution spec: two steps (preflight, find-weakness-and-act) with needs dependencies. Claude reviews prediction history, explores/exploits weaknesses, and files issues in a single interactive session

Environment variables consumed:

• CODEBERG_TOKEN, CODEBERG_REPO, CODEBERG_API, PROJECT_NAME, PROJECT_REPO_ROOT
• PRIMARY_BRANCH, CLAUDE_MODEL (set to sonnet by predictor-run.sh)
• MATRIX_TOKEN, MATRIX_ROOM_ID, MATRIX_HOMESERVER — Notifications (optional)

Lifecycle: predictor-run.sh (daily 06:00 cron) → lock + memory guard → load formula + context (AGENTS.md, RESOURCES.md, VISION.md, prerequisite-tree.md) → create tmux session → Claude fetches prediction history (open + closed) → reviews track record (actioned/dismissed/watching) → finds weaknesses (prerequisite tree gaps, thin evidence, stale watches, external risks) → dedup against existing open predictions → explore (file prediction) or exploit (file prediction + dispatch formula via action issue) → PHASE:done. The planner's Phase 1 later triages these predictions.