a225b05070
Add a re-evaluate-backlog step to the predictor formula between collect-signals and analyze-and-predict. For each open prediction/backlog issue, the predictor now reads the original context and planner comments, extracts the assumptions that made it "watch, don't act", and re-checks those conditions against current system state. Three outcomes: - CONDITIONS_CHANGED → file new prediction/unreviewed, close old as superseded - STALE (30+ days, conditions stable) → close as prediction/actioned - UNCHANGED_RECENT → skip (existing behavior) Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
48 lines
2.8 KiB
Markdown
48 lines
2.8 KiB
Markdown
<!-- last-reviewed: 9ec0c0221032979bd4440b9fd67f2072f1de01be -->
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# Predictor Agent
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**Role**: Risk oracle and opportunity spotter (the "goblin"). Runs a 4-step
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formula (preflight → collect-signals → re-evaluate-backlog → analyze-and-predict)
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via interactive tmux Claude session (sonnet). Collects three categories of signals:
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1. **Health signals** — CI pipeline trends (Woodpecker), stale issues, agent
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health (tmux sessions + logs), resource patterns (RAM, disk, load, containers)
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2. **Outcome signals** — output freshness (formula journals/artifacts), capacity
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utilization (idle agents vs dispatchable backlog), throughput (closed issues,
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merged PRs, churn detection)
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3. **External signals** — dependency security advisories, upstream breaking
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changes, deprecation notices, ecosystem shifts (via targeted web search)
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Files up to 5 `prediction/unreviewed` issues for the Planner to triage.
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Predictions cover both "things going wrong" and "opportunities being missed".
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The predictor MUST NOT emit feature work — only observations about health,
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outcomes, and external risks/opportunities.
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**Trigger**: `predictor-run.sh` runs daily at 06:00 UTC via cron (1h before
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the planner at 07:00). Guarded by PID lock (`/tmp/predictor-run.lock`) and
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memory check (skips if available RAM < 2000 MB).
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**Key files**:
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- `predictor/predictor-run.sh` — Cron wrapper + orchestrator: lock, memory guard,
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sources disinto project config, builds prompt with formula + Codeberg API
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reference, creates tmux session (sonnet), monitors phase file, handles crash
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recovery via `run_formula_and_monitor`
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- `formulas/run-predictor.toml` — Execution spec: four steps (preflight,
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collect-signals, re-evaluate-backlog, analyze-and-predict) with `needs`
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dependencies. Claude collects signals, re-evaluates watched predictions,
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and files prediction issues in a single interactive session
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**Environment variables consumed**:
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- `CODEBERG_TOKEN`, `CODEBERG_REPO`, `CODEBERG_API`, `PROJECT_NAME`, `PROJECT_REPO_ROOT`
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- `PRIMARY_BRANCH`, `CLAUDE_MODEL` (set to sonnet by predictor-run.sh)
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- `WOODPECKER_TOKEN`, `WOODPECKER_SERVER` — CI pipeline trend queries (optional; skipped if unset)
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- `MATRIX_TOKEN`, `MATRIX_ROOM_ID`, `MATRIX_HOMESERVER` — Notifications (optional)
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**Lifecycle**: predictor-run.sh (daily 06:00 cron) → lock + memory guard →
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load formula + context → create tmux session → Claude collects signals
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(health: CI trends, stale issues, agent health, resources; outcomes: output
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freshness, capacity utilization, throughput; external: dependency advisories,
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ecosystem changes via web search) → dedup against existing open predictions →
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re-evaluate prediction/backlog watches (close stale, supersede changed) →
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file `prediction/unreviewed` issues → `PHASE:done`.
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The planner's Phase 1 later triages these predictions.
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