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disinto/predictor/AGENTS.md
openhands a225b05070 fix: feat: predictor re-evaluates prediction/backlog issues — evolve stale watches into targeted warnings (#588) 
Add a re-evaluate-backlog step to the predictor formula between
collect-signals and analyze-and-predict. For each open prediction/backlog
issue, the predictor now reads the original context and planner comments,
extracts the assumptions that made it "watch, don't act", and re-checks
those conditions against current system state.

Three outcomes:
- CONDITIONS_CHANGED → file new prediction/unreviewed, close old as superseded
- STALE (30+ days, conditions stable) → close as prediction/actioned
- UNCHANGED_RECENT → skip (existing behavior)

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-23 11:51:43 +00:00

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Predictor Agent

Role: Risk oracle and opportunity spotter (the "goblin"). Runs a 4-step formula (preflight → collect-signals → re-evaluate-backlog → analyze-and-predict) via interactive tmux Claude session (sonnet). Collects three categories of signals:

  1. Health signals — CI pipeline trends (Woodpecker), stale issues, agent health (tmux sessions + logs), resource patterns (RAM, disk, load, containers)
  2. Outcome signals — output freshness (formula journals/artifacts), capacity utilization (idle agents vs dispatchable backlog), throughput (closed issues, merged PRs, churn detection)
  3. External signals — dependency security advisories, upstream breaking changes, deprecation notices, ecosystem shifts (via targeted web search)

Files up to 5 prediction/unreviewed issues for the Planner to triage. Predictions cover both "things going wrong" and "opportunities being missed". The predictor MUST NOT emit feature work — only observations about health, outcomes, and external risks/opportunities.

Trigger: predictor-run.sh runs daily at 06:00 UTC via cron (1h before the planner at 07:00). Guarded by PID lock (/tmp/predictor-run.lock) and memory check (skips if available RAM < 2000 MB).

Key files:

  • predictor/predictor-run.sh — Cron wrapper + orchestrator: lock, memory guard, sources disinto project config, builds prompt with formula + Codeberg API reference, creates tmux session (sonnet), monitors phase file, handles crash recovery via run_formula_and_monitor
  • formulas/run-predictor.toml — Execution spec: four steps (preflight, collect-signals, re-evaluate-backlog, analyze-and-predict) with needs dependencies. Claude collects signals, re-evaluates watched predictions, and files prediction issues in a single interactive session

Environment variables consumed:

  • CODEBERG_TOKEN, CODEBERG_REPO, CODEBERG_API, PROJECT_NAME, PROJECT_REPO_ROOT
  • PRIMARY_BRANCH, CLAUDE_MODEL (set to sonnet by predictor-run.sh)
  • WOODPECKER_TOKEN, WOODPECKER_SERVER — CI pipeline trend queries (optional; skipped if unset)
  • MATRIX_TOKEN, MATRIX_ROOM_ID, MATRIX_HOMESERVER — Notifications (optional)

Lifecycle: predictor-run.sh (daily 06:00 cron) → lock + memory guard → load formula + context → create tmux session → Claude collects signals (health: CI trends, stale issues, agent health, resources; outcomes: output freshness, capacity utilization, throughput; external: dependency advisories, ecosystem changes via web search) → dedup against existing open predictions → re-evaluate prediction/backlog watches (close stale, supersede changed) → file prediction/unreviewed issues → PHASE:done. The planner's Phase 1 later triages these predictions.